Bob Wightman has just released the figures for Bob Graham Round (BGR) registrations, completions, male/female split, direction of travel, etc. for 2019, which make interesting reading, and that I have commented on before. [https://forum.fellrunner.org.uk/showthread.php?24761-BGR-2019-summary&p=657211#post657211]
I have updated my spreadsheet, and the graphs of several aspects of the data. My original analysis was in an earlier blog [BGR completion rate is 42%], with a follow-up on women’s completions [Women’s completions at BGR]. Both were based on data up to and including 2018.
Below are some updated graphs and a couple of comments on each.
This first graph shows the data just for completions since 1971. The black line is the actual numbers completing, which was at its highest ever level in 2019, after a minor downturn in 2018. [The red line is the trend line which is obviously up (after recovering from the Foot and Mouth blip of 2001) and the blue is the moving mean]
More recently figures for registrations and completions have been published, allowing analysis of completion percentages. The graph above is of the last 8 years, showing upward trends in registrations and completions (these figures are for males and females combined), but interestingly NOT an increasing percentage actually completing. It invariably hovers either side of 50%. The next two graphs look at the male/female data.
The men’s data pretty much follows the pattern of the total data (there are still many more men than women involved). 2019 shows a rise in all three data sets for the year, after all going down in 2018. The completion rate of 54.95% for men is the highest ever since I have been looking at this (the second highest was 52.5% in 2012). The male completions, at 111, is the highest it has ever been in one year.
The women’s completions (red) have been the similar recently (13, 13, 14 and 14 in the last 4 years), but because the registrations have been going down (28, 27, 24, 22) there has been an increase in completion percentage for the last 4 years. The percentage lines are at the top of this graph as the numbers are higher than either the registrations or completions, but do clearly show that trend, which ended up with an impressive 63.64% completion rate for women this year, the highest ever, male or female, ever recorded. Admittedly from a small sample size.
While I am here, and apropos of nothing in particular, and not directly related to anything above, but there was an interesting article in the Guardian recently by Kate Carter that highlighted some ‘female ultra-athletes leading the field’ that they compete in, including the incomparable Jasmin Paris, whose blog on her Montane Spine race win is well worth a read.
Following on from my post BGR completion rate is 42.2% a couple of people mooted the idea that the women’s completion percentage might be higher, giving reasons such as: ‘they’ve generally prepared better; they don’t sprint the first two legs and then run out of steam on leg 3; they are stronger’ (h/t Paul Wilson). The Bob Graham Club website has data for the last 7 years by gender, so I have graphed it for women only.
Comment: All three sets of data – percentages, registrations, and completions are all trending slightly upwards (the dotted lines). The completion percentage varies significantly for women from year to year, which might be partly explained by the small sample size – meaning that one person swinging from succeed to fail would change the resulting numbers a fair bit. The lowest % is 31.6 and the highest is 60.0 (for all completions in the same period it ranged from 39.6 to 53.6%). Although the percentage for 2018 is high, at 58.3%, only in three of the seven years is the women’s percentage higher than the overall percentage. To me that is inconclusive and doesn’t really prove the point.
[Yes I know I should compare women to men and not the overall completers, so here is the men’s data graphed]
Comment: not much to say, except that it almost exactly mirrors the original graphs for all completers regardless of gender. It does show that although registrations and completions for men are trending upwards, the percentage completions is slightly down-turned, and is consistently around the 50% mark (with a range of 40.8 to 52.5).