A little wrangling of the figures that BGR club post on their website for registrations and completions for the Bob Graham Round shows that the completion percentage is trending downwards at present. For 2018, 199 people registered and 84 completed, which is a 42.2% success rate. I have graphed the figures for the last 7 years* and the picture shows the trends for registrations, completions and percentages (the three dotted lines, which for the mathematicians amongst you are simple linear trend lines).
Comment: Registrations have been steadily increasing, with a high of 233 in 2017. It was a small dip last year, but still the second highest. Completions mirror the registrations pattern, again with a high of 115 in 2017, with last year again the second highest. Despite these fluctuations and trends, the % of completions does seem to always remain pretty much the same. It varies from 53.7% in 2012 to 39.6% in 2014, and as noted is marginally trending downwards. Speculative (and possibly controversial) cause – more less-prepared aspirants having a go these days.
A second graph shows the number of completions for every year since 1971.
Comment: the graph shows a strong trend for more people completing the BGR (solid red line is the linear trend) over time, but also how it fluctuates from year to year (dashed blue line is a 6-year moving average). 2001 was the year of foot and mouth disease, when there were no completions. It is interesting how long it took to get back to previous levels after that, presumably as folk weren’t able to get on the hills to recce. In the 1990s the numbers fluctuated greatly but were in fact trending down for some reason. The graph also shows that the 115 completions in 2017 were the highest ever number.
*NB: these are the only detailed ones I have access to
Notes/links: For more on the Bob Graham Round see the club website at: http://www.bobgrahamclub.org.uk/. For more on the BGR and its history see my book: ‘The Round: in Bob Graham’s footsteps’. For more on Kilian Jornet’s outstanding new record of 12-52 for the round, which he set in 2018, see: ‘Kílian Jornet smashes Bob Graham endurance race record’.
Caveat: I am aware that posting this I may be accused of ‘promoting’ the BGR, something the Bob Graham Club disapprove of. They rightly point out on their website some of the issues that increasing numbers cause, one of which is illustrated below.